Ontario’s public health officials are warning of a dramatic rise in the number of COVID-19 cases if people don’t follow public health measures.
An update was provided Wednesday on provincial modelling.
University of Toronto’s Dr. Adalsteinn Brown says the province is currently on an upward trajectory similar to what’s being experienced in hot spot areas including Victoria, Australia and in Michigan.
“Things grow as we are anticipating, we will see a dramatic increase in the number of cases. With cases now doubling every 10 to 12 days and likely over 1,000 cases within the first half of October a day. Which is a remarkably high surge.”
Ontario is reporting 625 new cases today.
Dr. Brown says “It is rising in all age groups. And this is where it becomes particularly troublesome or threatening for our health system as it rises in these older age groups.”
Other key findings in the modelling:
-Intensive Care Unit occupancy is currently steady, but it is predicted that admissions will likely rise with an increase in COVID-19 patients being hospitalized.
-Ontario may see between 200 and 300 patients with COVID-19 in ICU beds per day if cases continue to grow.
Dr. Brown notes “Anything we do now to reinforce the point to control the transmission of the disease will start to have an effect days later. So there is no sort of ability to turn a switch or dial up and down on what’s going on.”
Ontario’s Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. David Williams says in order to reduce the spread of the number of new cases, it remains critical that Ontarians continue to adhere to public health measures, including avoiding large gatherings, physical distancing and wearing a face covering.
Dr. Williams says the public showed during the first wave they can impact the trend.
“That’s what gives me great confidence to say ‘Let’s do it again’. It’s like a rally for the second half of whatever sports game you want to play. We’ve got to pull up our socks. We got to do what we need to do, what we’re trained to do. And do and do it again and do it well. And we can impact the curve.”
